Friday, January 8, 2010

Clemson Football 2010

So I'm in a football talking mood, apparently. Since I am a Clemson grad, I have to talk about our prospects for next season. First of all, 2009 ACC Player of the Year and consensus All-American C.J. Spiller will be missed in the coming season. He was one of the greatest players to ever put on the orange and white, but his biggest contribution might have been on special teams. He is not, and probably never will be, a pile mover that grinds out 4-5 yards every carry. He was, however, the most lethal player in the country. He could always slip one tackle and then take it to the endzone on any given play. As a return man, the field position he was able to give the Tigers in 2009 was a largely unmentioned benefit to go along with his 5 return touchdowns (4 on punts). It is impossible for him to be replaced by any one player, but their is enough talent for Clemson to make up his yards with other contributors.

The offensive backfield will be adequately manned with junior Jamie Harper and sophomore Andre Ellington. Both gained valuable experience in 2009 due to the nagging toe injury that limited Spiller's carries in some games. Ellington had 491 yards and 4 touchdowns (7.2 ypc) and Harper added 418 yards and 4 scores as well. Hopefully the two can become a "Thunder and Lightning 2.0" similar to the original James Davis-C.J. Spiller "Thunder and Lightning" duo. Ellington, at only 180 lbs., showed impressive burst through the line this season and runs incredibly tough for a smaller back. Harper, meanwhile at 235 lbs., looked tentative during many of his carries but exploded in the bowl game against Kentucky. He ran with power and surprising speed for a big back. Clemson needs those two to step up their games in a big way in 2010.

Kyle Parker had an outstanding freshman season after beating out local hero Willy Korn. Parker passed for 2,526 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also rushed for 135 yards and one touchdown. Despite being undersized, Parker has a cannon for an arm, which is why he may be playing major league baseball and not football next fall. He is a star for the Clemson baseball team and, barring a good draft position, may opt to go that route after this spring's baseball season. Redshirt freshman Tajh Boyd will get the call if Parker goes to baseball, and many have rumored he might beat out Parker if the two go head-to-head in the fall anyway. Boyd was a landmark recruit that chose the Tigers over Oregon and Ohio State. He has big-time talent and is adept as a runner and passer. However, neither will have much success unless the next group steps up in a big way.

Jacoby Ford (2009 Second Team All-ACC) will be the most missed member of our offense in 2010, in my opinion. He had a great senior season as the only real receiving threat for the Tigers outside of All-ACC tight end Michael Palmer. Ford hauled in 56 receptions for 779 yards and 6 touchdowns. Unfortunately, the second-leading wide receiver for Clemson in 2009 was Xavier Dye with a whopping 14 receptions. Dye did catch 3 touchdowns, but production from that position must increase drastically for the Tigers to make a return trip to the ACC Championship Game. He will be joined by junior Marquan Jones (9 receptions, 137 yards, 1 TD) and senior Terrance Ashe (11-124) as the only receivers with any real game experience. Redshirt freshman Bryce McNeal will be looked upon to contribute immediately after playing on the scout team in 2009. He was a big-time recruit and supposedly has a good rapport with Boyd should the two be an on-field tandem. True freshman Martavis Bryant, also a high profile recruit, may get playing time early in his career. They will receive help from the tight end position which was utilized frequently this past season. Sophomore Dwayne Allen is a promising prospect at tight end who caught 3 touchdowns this past season.

The offensive line returns All-ACC senior left tackle Chris Hairston, junior guard Antoine McClain, sophomore center Dalton Freeman, and junior right tackle Landon Walker. All-ACC guard Thomas Austin departs due to graduation, and junior guard Mason Cloy will have to rehabilitate the broken leg he suffered against Georgia Tech in the conference championship game. The potential starting five of Hairston, McClain, Freeman, Cloy and Walker is a solid group that has a wealth of experience. Depth here is a concern, however. Cloy was the second team center and guard, behind Austin, last season but received extensive playing time. David Smith should provide quality depth at either tackle or guard, but outside of that there are more questions than answers. This could be a strong unit for the Tigers in 2010 provided they are not battling injuries.



Similarly, the defensive line should be strong unit once again this season. Defensive tackles Jarvis Jenkins and Brandon Thompson return, as does Jamie Cumbie and Miguel Chavis, giving the team a solid four-man rotation at defensive tackle. Ricky Sapp, who had an all-conference senior season, is lost but will be replaced by junior Andre Branch and/or sophomore Malliciah Goodman. Junior defensive end Da'Quan Bowers needs to have a big season this year. He had a steady sophomore season with 58 tackles, 11 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. However, expectations are exceedingly high for Bowers, who was the top-rated prospect in the nation as a high school senior, and he needs to up those numbers in '10.



Linebacker is the area of most concern, and anyone watching the Georgia Tech games could see why. Middle linebacker Brandon Maye, the team's third leading tackler in '09, is a passionate player who had 103 tackles last season, but must improve in his junior year for the defense to take the next step. He is the lone returning starter as both Kavell Connor and Kevin Alexander were seniors in '09. Corico Hawkins, a sophomore, received a fair amount of playing time as a freshman and was a highly regarded recruit. He may move to the outside or challenge Maye for playing time. Senior Scotty Cooper has plenty of experience as a starter and non-starter, and should enter the spring as a starter at one of the outside linebacker spots. Tarik Rollins, Tig Willard, Spencer Shuey, Quandon Christian, and Daniel Andrews will compete for the outside linebacker spots. Whoever eventually rises to man these spots needs to come a long way in a short period of time. Linebacker play was the weak point of the defense last season and could be an even weaker spot in 2010. That must significantly improve before this team can expect to be playing in a BCS game.

The Tiger secondary, on the other hand, should be one of the best in the ACC, and possibly the nation. All-American safety DeAndre McDaniel returns after a huge junior season. McDaniel picked off 8 passes to go along with 102 tackles. The other safety spot will probably be Freshman All-American Rashard Hall, who himself had 6 interceptions in '09. Seniors Byron Maxwell and Marcus Gilchrist will likely be the starting cornerbacks with junior Coty Sensabaugh and sophomore Xavier Brewer waiting in the wings.

Richard Jackson, a senior, will return to handle field goals and extra points while junior Dawson Zimmerman will be the punter. Spencer Benton is the kickoff specialist.

As mentioned in a previous posting, the schedule will be tougher next season. Road trips to Chapel Hill, Auburn, Tallahassee, Chestnut Hill and Winston-Salem all present a challenge. The home schedule is also tough with Georgia Tech, Miami and South Carolina coming to Clemson.

I think the Tigers beat Maryland, NC State, Presbyterian, and North Texas easily at home. South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Miami present much more trouble. As it stands right now, I don't see the Tigers beating Georgia Tech next season. If Jonathan Dwyer and Derrick Morgan declare for the NFL Draft, as expected, then that changes things. However, as of now, I see the Yellow Jackets continuing their winning streak against Clemson. Miami is a mercurial team that is tough to predict. They have a ton of talent and will not forget their overtime loss to the Tigers in '09. I hate to say it, but I think the Hurricanes escape Death Valley as well. However, I see the Tigers avenging the whipping they received at the hands of the Gamecocks last season. South Carolina could be a very dangerous team but the two teams were clearly not on the same wavelength when they met last November. I would expect the Tiger defense to slow down a potentially explosive passing game and protect their house.

I do see the Tigers winning at Wake Forest. Riley Skinner graduates and leaves a large hole at quarterback for the Demon Deacons and it appears that head coach Jim Grobe has some rebuilding to do. Boston College is another road game the Tigers should claim, although the Eagles have been a pesky opponent over the years and that game is always a tough contest. I do not see a win at Auburn, however. Jordan-Hare is a difficult environment to win in and Auburn displayed a very potent offense this past season. However, they must replace their leading rusher and quarterback. I also do not see the Tigers winning in Chapel Hill. The Tarheels had a quiet season in '09 but finished 9-4. They return almost everyone next season and should compete for the conference title. I have no idea what to expect out of Florida State with Jimbo Fisher at the helm. I do think there will be alot of excitement and a newfound energy for the Seminoles, but I think it will take time before they are back among the conference elite.

Overall I think Clemson will have a status quo season for the Tigers. Poor receiver play will most likely bring down Parker's numbers should he return to play quarterback. The offensive line will be a solid but not spectacular unit. Harper and Ellington will be effective, however, and the running game should be formidable. I would expect Ellington to rush for 800-900 yards and Harper to add another 600-800. I do not forsee either back making the big plays Spiller provided last season, however. Nor do I expect our special teams to be as, well special, without Spiller and Ford returning kicks and forcing teams to alter their gameplan.

The defense should be the reason the Tigers are in every game. Kevin Steele's unit has room for improvement but was very solid in his first season as defensive coordinator. The success of this unit comes down to the linebackers, but the secondary and defensive line will be the envy of everyone in the ACC. I think Dabo Swinney's second season will result in a 7-5 season with road losses to Auburn, Florida State, and North Carolina. I also predict home losses to Georgia Tech and Miami. There are several caveats to this, however.

1.) Receiver play. If Bryce McNeal becomes a big-time player early in his career, or Xavier Dye or Marquan Jones play with the potential they flashed as sought after recruits then this group could be a much needed surprise.

2.) Linebackers. Brandon Maye is a steady performer, and if he can be joined by a playmaker (or become one himself) in the tradition of Leroy Hill, Anthony Simmons, Keith Adams, John Leake, Chad Carson, etc. then this will lead to more wins in 2010.

3.) The continued development of offensive coordinator Billy Napier. The offense was brutal early in the season in 2009, but began to develop as the season went on. The Maryland and South Carolina games were particularly painful. If he can improve in his second season our team will be much better.

4.) Georgia Tech's underclassmen defections. If Dwyer and Morgan go pro, then I will not be so sure the Jackets win in Clemson. These match-ups are always close and could go either way, but the Tigers have been on the short end alot lately. If Jonathan Dwyer is running up the gut on Sundays next fall their offense will take a step back. The same can be said of Derrick Morgan, who single-handidly disrupted Clemson in the entire first half of last season's game in Atlanta.

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