Clemson Football - Into the Abyss (or is it...)

Well, it's been quite some time since I put anything on here and Clemson's football team has a dissapointing 4-4 (2-3 ACC) record. The most recent loss was to a woeful 2-5 Boston College team that had only Kent State and Weber State before taking out the favored Tigers. As expected, the zealous fanbase is calling for the head of everyone from Jim Barker down to Dabo Swinney and everyone in between. I will certainly agree that changes indeed are necessitated. The most obvious move to me is a new athletic director. Rumors abound that Dabo Swinney presented current athletic director Terry Don Phillips with essentially a list of demands to which he accepted, only to later take back and handcuff Swinney with staff decisions. I'm not totally sure how accurate this is, but it is not unlike situations that have reportedly occurred under his leadership. Most importantly, athletic success is just not occurring at Clemson in any sport. All of the fall teams are currently below .500 in the ACC. The last conference championship won in any sport was baseball in 2006. The handing of the departures of women's basketball coach Jim Davis and men's soccer coach Trevor Adair was poor at best, and the "national" coaching search that ended in Swinney was hardly a 'no stone left unturned' search. The recent hiring of men's basketball coach Brad Brownell was similar as well, and rumors persist that Purnell left because he was not receiving the support he desired from the athletic department.

I certainly feel that the criticism of Terry Don Phillips is warranted, and it is time to go in a different direction at that position. One only needs to look down the road to Columbia to see the impact of athletic director Eric Hyman, who left Texas Christian University for the University of South Carolina and has paid dividends in only 5 years. Interestingly, he hired Gary Patterson to lead the TCU football team, which has since become a natonal power. Patterson was reportedly very interested in the Clemson opening when Swinney eventually was named head coach, but balked at the low ball offer made to him by Phillips.

As far as university president Jim Barker I think it would be hasty, and unrealistic, to oust him because the Tiger football program is not where it, quite honestly, should be. His "Top 20 Public University" initiative seems to pervade every decision he makes, and he has not made life easier on prospective athletes with questionable academics, but I think the right athletic director may be able to have more impact than changing presidents.

As for Swinney, I am on the fence. I honestly feel that it is too soon to pull the plug on a coach in his second year (maybe 2.5 years since he was the interim coach before being named head coach). His supposed meddling with the play-calling has to stop, however. This offseason is vitally important for his career in Tigertown and most likely will include some turnover on the offensive side of the ball. The receiver position, for one, has been a glaring weakness in both of the years he has been at the helm, which is strange considering that he was previously the wide receivers coach.

I do feel though that it will be fair to assess him after next season. The roster is young this season and the ACC is so perenially weak that it's simply baffling why the Tigers have been unable to win a conference title since 1991. Next season could be special or it could be his last.

I feel that talks of his demise after this season are premature and irresponsible. I think he deserves 3 full seasons, at least. It is quite possible, and I'd say probable, that this Clemson team will be the first to be ineligible for a bowl since 1998. That will likely be coupled with another dubious distinction; losing to South Carolina two years in a row. The last time that happened was 1969-1970. That combination will give him an incredibly hot seat in 2011 should they both occur.

Personally, I really like Dabo. I think his enthusiasm is a refreshing change from his predecessor. I believe he is really, truly working his tail off and doing what he thinks is best for Clemson everyday. I really like Dabo Swinney, the man. However, I am having a hard time differentiating between head coach Dabo Swinney and head coach Tommy Bowden. Neither of their teams had an identity - one game the team was running the ball, the next it was passing, and they never can get short-yardage plays. Inexpicable losses were the hallmark of Bowden's career and, in two season, Swinney has two (Maryland '09, BC '10). My biggest concern with Swinney is that he is working hard but I don't feel that he has a real plan in place to follow. I am afraid he is just trying to work harder and not smarter; focusing more on the intangibles and emotion that schematic and player development goals.

I originally predicted that this team would go 7-5, but I do not think the team will finish that well. I see this as a 5-7 team now, especially with the injury of running back Andre Ellington, who has been an absolute stud in an otherwise lackluster offense. He is expected to miss at least 2 games.

Here's how I see this playing out:

The Tigers play host to NC State Saturday, which has been a much-improved team this season and are leading the ACC Atlantic Division. It is a noon kickoff and Clemson does not have their best offensive weapon in Ellington. I expect NC State to come out somewhat flat following their huge win last Thursday over Florida State. However, the crowd honestly won't be much of a factor at Death Valley and without Ellington, I just don't see any playmakers showing up for the Tigers. Clemson's defense has been pretty good this season, but not as good as most expected. I see this one going to the Wolfpack, 28-17. Clemson record: 4-5 (2-4)

The next game is a road trip to Tallahassee, where first-year coach Jimbo Fisher has his team playing much improved ball (at least to this point) than where they were in the last several seasons of Bobby Bowden's storied tenure. This will be a night game, so the atmosphere should be pretty significant, and Clemson has had limited success in Tallahassee. Again, without Ellington the Tigers lack much firepower, and the Seminole defense has been the catalyst for their improvement. This one is all Seminoles, 31 - 14. Clemson record: 4-6 (2-5)

The next game should be a win for Clemson despite it being a road game. Wake Forest has been absolutely horrible, evidenced by the 62 points put on them by Maryland last weekend. If Clemson loses this one then yes, fire Dabo, fire offensive coordinator Billy Napier, fire Phillips, Barker, custodians, etc, etc. Ellington may return for this game as well, and the Tigers should just simply out-athlete this over-matched squad. Tigers win, 35-13. Record improves to 5-6 (3-5).

Finally, the in-state rivalry with the resurgent Gamecocks. Depending on the outcome of the Gamecocks' game in Gainesville against the rebuilding and vulnerable Florida Gators the week before, this could be the SEC East champion South Carolina Gamecocks that come to Death Valley. This would be ironically similar to last year's game when the Tigers went to Columbia freshly annointed the ACC Atlantic Division champion, on a 6-game winning streak with a Heisman contender. South Carolina dominated that game, winning 34-17. This game is always hotly contested and I do expect Death Valley to be absolutely ravenous for this one. There's nothing Clemson fans hate more than losing to South Carolina, regardless of the teams' respective win/loss records. Unfortunately for the Tigers, freshman running back Marcus Lattimore and sophomore receiver Alshon Jeffery will probably be too much, and I think the Gamecocks will survive an emotionally charged Tiger team and come away with a victory, 28-24.

A 5-7 record will create absolute madness at Clemson and among the fans. It may create a hunger in the players in the offseason, and may motivate great things for 2011. One thing is for sure, there is not a lack of talent on the roster, even at the weaker positions. Wide receiver should receive a boost from incoming freshmen Martavis Bryant and Charone Peake, as well as the continuing emergence of DeAndre Hopkins and Jaron Brown. Tight end Dwayne Allen has been very good this year, and he is only a sophomore. Quarterback Kyle Parker has struggled this season, and his replacement will likely be Tajh Boyd, another highly touted prospect.

Next season could make or break Swinney. The only way to get the fan base on your side is to win the ACC. While a championship is difficult to attain, the ACC is undeniably weak, and Clemson has some of the best talent in the conference. There is no reason Clemson should not be a conference contender every season, and a 10-win season should be possible more often than once every 20 years. Clemson has to change their newfound reputation of being soft and underachieving, and it remains to be seen whether or not Swinney is that man. It can be done, but it will take the right man. Unfortunately for Swinney, his connections to his predecessor do him no favors, and any resemblance of Swinney's underachieving teams to Bowden's will only shorten his time as the head coach at Clemson.