Well, it's been quite some time since I put anything on here and Clemson's football team has a dissapointing 4-4 (2-3 ACC) record. The most recent loss was to a woeful 2-5 Boston College team that had only Kent State and Weber State before taking out the favored Tigers. As expected, the zealous fanbase is calling for the head of everyone from Jim Barker down to Dabo Swinney and everyone in between. I will certainly agree that changes indeed are necessitated. The most obvious move to me is a new athletic director. Rumors abound that Dabo Swinney presented current athletic director Terry Don Phillips with essentially a list of demands to which he accepted, only to later take back and handcuff Swinney with staff decisions. I'm not totally sure how accurate this is, but it is not unlike situations that have reportedly occurred under his leadership. Most importantly, athletic success is just not occurring at Clemson in any sport. All of the fall teams are currently below .500 in the ACC. The last conference championship won in any sport was baseball in 2006. The handing of the departures of women's basketball coach Jim Davis and men's soccer coach Trevor Adair was poor at best, and the "national" coaching search that ended in Swinney was hardly a 'no stone left unturned' search. The recent hiring of men's basketball coach Brad Brownell was similar as well, and rumors persist that Purnell left because he was not receiving the support he desired from the athletic department.
I certainly feel that the criticism of Terry Don Phillips is warranted, and it is time to go in a different direction at that position. One only needs to look down the road to Columbia to see the impact of athletic director Eric Hyman, who left Texas Christian University for the University of South Carolina and has paid dividends in only 5 years. Interestingly, he hired Gary Patterson to lead the TCU football team, which has since become a natonal power. Patterson was reportedly very interested in the Clemson opening when Swinney eventually was named head coach, but balked at the low ball offer made to him by Phillips.
As far as university president Jim Barker I think it would be hasty, and unrealistic, to oust him because the Tiger football program is not where it, quite honestly, should be. His "Top 20 Public University" initiative seems to pervade every decision he makes, and he has not made life easier on prospective athletes with questionable academics, but I think the right athletic director may be able to have more impact than changing presidents.
As for Swinney, I am on the fence. I honestly feel that it is too soon to pull the plug on a coach in his second year (maybe 2.5 years since he was the interim coach before being named head coach). His supposed meddling with the play-calling has to stop, however. This offseason is vitally important for his career in Tigertown and most likely will include some turnover on the offensive side of the ball. The receiver position, for one, has been a glaring weakness in both of the years he has been at the helm, which is strange considering that he was previously the wide receivers coach.
I do feel though that it will be fair to assess him after next season. The roster is young this season and the ACC is so perenially weak that it's simply baffling why the Tigers have been unable to win a conference title since 1991. Next season could be special or it could be his last.
I feel that talks of his demise after this season are premature and irresponsible. I think he deserves 3 full seasons, at least. It is quite possible, and I'd say probable, that this Clemson team will be the first to be ineligible for a bowl since 1998. That will likely be coupled with another dubious distinction; losing to South Carolina two years in a row. The last time that happened was 1969-1970. That combination will give him an incredibly hot seat in 2011 should they both occur.
Personally, I really like Dabo. I think his enthusiasm is a refreshing change from his predecessor. I believe he is really, truly working his tail off and doing what he thinks is best for Clemson everyday. I really like Dabo Swinney, the man. However, I am having a hard time differentiating between head coach Dabo Swinney and head coach Tommy Bowden. Neither of their teams had an identity - one game the team was running the ball, the next it was passing, and they never can get short-yardage plays. Inexpicable losses were the hallmark of Bowden's career and, in two season, Swinney has two (Maryland '09, BC '10). My biggest concern with Swinney is that he is working hard but I don't feel that he has a real plan in place to follow. I am afraid he is just trying to work harder and not smarter; focusing more on the intangibles and emotion that schematic and player development goals.
I originally predicted that this team would go 7-5, but I do not think the team will finish that well. I see this as a 5-7 team now, especially with the injury of running back Andre Ellington, who has been an absolute stud in an otherwise lackluster offense. He is expected to miss at least 2 games.
Here's how I see this playing out:
The Tigers play host to NC State Saturday, which has been a much-improved team this season and are leading the ACC Atlantic Division. It is a noon kickoff and Clemson does not have their best offensive weapon in Ellington. I expect NC State to come out somewhat flat following their huge win last Thursday over Florida State. However, the crowd honestly won't be much of a factor at Death Valley and without Ellington, I just don't see any playmakers showing up for the Tigers. Clemson's defense has been pretty good this season, but not as good as most expected. I see this one going to the Wolfpack, 28-17. Clemson record: 4-5 (2-4)
The next game is a road trip to Tallahassee, where first-year coach Jimbo Fisher has his team playing much improved ball (at least to this point) than where they were in the last several seasons of Bobby Bowden's storied tenure. This will be a night game, so the atmosphere should be pretty significant, and Clemson has had limited success in Tallahassee. Again, without Ellington the Tigers lack much firepower, and the Seminole defense has been the catalyst for their improvement. This one is all Seminoles, 31 - 14. Clemson record: 4-6 (2-5)
The next game should be a win for Clemson despite it being a road game. Wake Forest has been absolutely horrible, evidenced by the 62 points put on them by Maryland last weekend. If Clemson loses this one then yes, fire Dabo, fire offensive coordinator Billy Napier, fire Phillips, Barker, custodians, etc, etc. Ellington may return for this game as well, and the Tigers should just simply out-athlete this over-matched squad. Tigers win, 35-13. Record improves to 5-6 (3-5).
Finally, the in-state rivalry with the resurgent Gamecocks. Depending on the outcome of the Gamecocks' game in Gainesville against the rebuilding and vulnerable Florida Gators the week before, this could be the SEC East champion South Carolina Gamecocks that come to Death Valley. This would be ironically similar to last year's game when the Tigers went to Columbia freshly annointed the ACC Atlantic Division champion, on a 6-game winning streak with a Heisman contender. South Carolina dominated that game, winning 34-17. This game is always hotly contested and I do expect Death Valley to be absolutely ravenous for this one. There's nothing Clemson fans hate more than losing to South Carolina, regardless of the teams' respective win/loss records. Unfortunately for the Tigers, freshman running back Marcus Lattimore and sophomore receiver Alshon Jeffery will probably be too much, and I think the Gamecocks will survive an emotionally charged Tiger team and come away with a victory, 28-24.
A 5-7 record will create absolute madness at Clemson and among the fans. It may create a hunger in the players in the offseason, and may motivate great things for 2011. One thing is for sure, there is not a lack of talent on the roster, even at the weaker positions. Wide receiver should receive a boost from incoming freshmen Martavis Bryant and Charone Peake, as well as the continuing emergence of DeAndre Hopkins and Jaron Brown. Tight end Dwayne Allen has been very good this year, and he is only a sophomore. Quarterback Kyle Parker has struggled this season, and his replacement will likely be Tajh Boyd, another highly touted prospect.
Next season could make or break Swinney. The only way to get the fan base on your side is to win the ACC. While a championship is difficult to attain, the ACC is undeniably weak, and Clemson has some of the best talent in the conference. There is no reason Clemson should not be a conference contender every season, and a 10-win season should be possible more often than once every 20 years. Clemson has to change their newfound reputation of being soft and underachieving, and it remains to be seen whether or not Swinney is that man. It can be done, but it will take the right man. Unfortunately for Swinney, his connections to his predecessor do him no favors, and any resemblance of Swinney's underachieving teams to Bowden's will only shorten his time as the head coach at Clemson.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Sunday, May 9, 2010
NBA Conversation: All-Time Greats Past and Present - A Comparison
I have been glued to the NBA Playoffs this season, and there have been some very impressive performances thus far. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have all shown why they are considered among the best in the game. Bryant and James, blessed with talented supporting casts, may face each other in the NBA Finals, while Wade's Miami Heat were eliminated despite his impressive postseason stats of 33.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game.
For the sake of argument, just how are these guys stacking up against some of the game's best at this stage of their careers?
In order to compare today's stars with those of the past, it is important to look only at their first 7 seasons in the league, since this is LeBron and Wade's 7th season. There is one caveat to this, as injury and lack of playing time as a rookie can drastically alter a player's statistics. Therefore only the first 7 seasons in which a player started 42 or more games were used for this compliation. Typically, all-stars statistics decline late in their careers, so it would not be fair to compare current players who are in their 7th season against those that had 14-15 year careers. The comparison first looks at the career regular season averages for James, Wade, Bryant, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Jerry West and Oscar Robertson.
Then, since the players averaged varying amounts of minutes, their statistics were extrapolated out to reflect their production over 48 minutes of action. This gives a standard time frame for comparison's sake.
The results are as follows (source:basketball-reference.com):
Dwyane Wade: 37.6 Min.Per Game, 25.4 Points Per Game, 48% FG, 29% 3Pt%, 77% FT, 4.9 RPG, 6.6 APG, 1.8 STL, 1.0 BLK, 3.7 Turnovers per game.
LeBron James: 40.3 MPG, 27.8 PPG, 48% FG, 33% 3Pt, 74% FT, 7.0 RPG, 7.0 APG, 1.7 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 3.3 T/O.
Kobe Bryant: 39.9 MPG, 25.4 PPG, 46% FG, 31% 3Pt., 84% FT, 5.9 RPG, 5.2 APG, 0.7 BPG, 3.16 T/O.
Larry Bird: 38.1 MPG, 23.96 PPG, 50% FG, 32% 3Pt, 87% FT, 10.5 RPG, 5.9 APG, .84 BPG, 3.19 T/O.
Magic Johnson: 36.96 MPG, 18.5 PPG, 54% FG, 18% 3Pt, 81% FT, 7.7 RPG, 10.6 APG, 2.29 SPG, 0.49 BPG, 3.9 T/O.
Michael Jordan: 39.1 MPG, 32.6 PPG, 52% FG, 25% 3Pt, 85% FT, 6.36 RPG, 6.04 APG, 2.74 SPG, 1.04 BPG, 3.07 T/O.
Jerry West: 39.84 MPG, 27.9 PPG, 46% FG, 80% FT, 6.8 RPG, 5.5 APG
Oscar Robertson: 44.5 MPG, 30.5 PPG, 49% FG, 83% FT, 9.4 RPG, 10.7 APG.
The above information shows that LeBron, Kobe and D-Wade certainly compare favorably to their predecessors. Also, Oscar Robertson was an extremely productive player, nearly averaging a triple-double for 7 seasons. Particularly striking to me was how active a defensive player Michael Jordan was, averaging 2.75 spg and a little over 1 block as well. That is extremely impressive for a 6'6" guard. Unfortunately, defensive statistics and turnovers were not statistics taht were recorded in their era.
In order to truly compare the players, however, it is necessary to take their stats and extrapolate them into 48 minute production, since some players averaged substantially more minutes than others (i.e. Robertson's 44.5 and Magic's ~37 minutes per game). Those results show the following:
*Leaders for each category in bold italics
Wade (per 48 minutes): 32.4 PPG 6.3 RPG 8.4 APG 2.3 SPG, 1.3 BPG, and 4.7 T/O.
LeBron: 33.1 PPG 8.3 RPG 8.3 APG 2.0 SPG 1.1 BPG 3.9 T/O.
Kobe: 31.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 6.31 APG, 1.9 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 3.9 T/O
Bird: 30.2 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 7.5 APG, 2.3 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 4.0 T/O
Magic: 24.6 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 14.5 APG, 2.7 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 5.2 T/O
Jordan: 39.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 7.4 APG, 3.4 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 3.8 T/O
Robertson: 32.8 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 11.5 APG
West: 33.6 PPG, 8.19 RPG, 6.6 APG
Again, it is unfortunate that West and Robertson did not have as many statistics available as the more current players. Michael Jordan leads in the most categories (points per game, tied for blocks per game and fewest turnovers per 48 minutes). He is tied with Dwyane Wade for most blocked shots per 48 minutes, which is somewhat surprising considering they are both guards. Again, this data highlights Jordan's activity on the defensive side of the ball.
LeBron James is certainly worthy of the praise he has been receiving, as well. While he does not lead in any one category he is effective in nearly all aspects. These data suggest though that while James is a deft passer, his game may be more similar to Bird than Magic. He and Bird are similar in points (33.1 - 30.2) and assists (8.3 - 7.5) while Bird holds a rather significant advantage in rebounds. This data also may support the idea that Bird may actually be underrated as a player. Magic has a substantial lead in assists to anyone else on the list, but he was less of a scorer than everyone else by a wide margin. It was also surprising to see such a large guard (6'8") have such success stealing the ball from opposing point guards who were presumably much shorter.
Again, Oscar Robertson was a productive monster as the only player to average a triple double in every category. It is hard to tell how comparable his numbers, and those of West, are to players of today, however, as their era (1960s) is significantly different than those of the more current players. Nevertheless, both he and West stack up quite favorably to the others on the list.
Personally, I feel that to disregard their numbers due to the supposed lack of athleticism of their oponents is unfortunate. The players today may be bigger, faster, stronger but are they better? The most athletic basketball player (or team) is certainly not always the best. While many of today's players are great at making SportsCenter's Top 10, they enter the league as 19 year olds who are very raw. It discredits the talents of players from the past and also insults the fundamentals of the players today to assume today's players are inherently more athletic and therefore better.
Not surprisingly to many is the finding that Kobe had the fewest assists. However, I was somewhat surprised by his averages as they are higher than many would expect from a player commonly labeled as selfish and a ball hog. His statistics compare to Jordan's less favorably than Wade's, but Kobe's resilience in the clutch has been his true hallmark. Wade may be another player that gets overlooked at times due to his woeful supporting cast in Miami, but it is impossible to argue his effectiveness on the court. Unfortunately for him he does turn the ball over at a high rate.
The next point of interest is how much these players mattered to their teams. Basketball-reference.com uses a few stats to show a player's contribution to his team's offense, defense, wins and wins per 48 minutes. Another stat of interest is the PER or Player Efficiency Rating, which is a measure of per minute production, which is standardized so the league average is 15.
- OWS represents Offensive Win Shares : an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player due to his offense
- DWS represents Defensive Win Shares : an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player due to his defense.
- WS represents Win Shares: an estimate of the wins contributed by a player
- WS/48 represents Win Shares per 48 minutes: an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is ~0.100).
Presented in this discussion is information on each player's regular season and postseason contributions to his team, averaged over their first 7 seasons.
Results:
For the sake of argument, just how are these guys stacking up against some of the game's best at this stage of their careers?
In order to compare today's stars with those of the past, it is important to look only at their first 7 seasons in the league, since this is LeBron and Wade's 7th season. There is one caveat to this, as injury and lack of playing time as a rookie can drastically alter a player's statistics. Therefore only the first 7 seasons in which a player started 42 or more games were used for this compliation. Typically, all-stars statistics decline late in their careers, so it would not be fair to compare current players who are in their 7th season against those that had 14-15 year careers. The comparison first looks at the career regular season averages for James, Wade, Bryant, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Jerry West and Oscar Robertson.
Then, since the players averaged varying amounts of minutes, their statistics were extrapolated out to reflect their production over 48 minutes of action. This gives a standard time frame for comparison's sake.
The results are as follows (source:basketball-reference.com):
Dwyane Wade: 37.6 Min.Per Game, 25.4 Points Per Game, 48% FG, 29% 3Pt%, 77% FT, 4.9 RPG, 6.6 APG, 1.8 STL, 1.0 BLK, 3.7 Turnovers per game.
LeBron James: 40.3 MPG, 27.8 PPG, 48% FG, 33% 3Pt, 74% FT, 7.0 RPG, 7.0 APG, 1.7 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 3.3 T/O.
Kobe Bryant: 39.9 MPG, 25.4 PPG, 46% FG, 31% 3Pt., 84% FT, 5.9 RPG, 5.2 APG, 0.7 BPG, 3.16 T/O.
Larry Bird: 38.1 MPG, 23.96 PPG, 50% FG, 32% 3Pt, 87% FT, 10.5 RPG, 5.9 APG, .84 BPG, 3.19 T/O.
Magic Johnson: 36.96 MPG, 18.5 PPG, 54% FG, 18% 3Pt, 81% FT, 7.7 RPG, 10.6 APG, 2.29 SPG, 0.49 BPG, 3.9 T/O.
Michael Jordan: 39.1 MPG, 32.6 PPG, 52% FG, 25% 3Pt, 85% FT, 6.36 RPG, 6.04 APG, 2.74 SPG, 1.04 BPG, 3.07 T/O.
Jerry West: 39.84 MPG, 27.9 PPG, 46% FG, 80% FT, 6.8 RPG, 5.5 APG
Oscar Robertson: 44.5 MPG, 30.5 PPG, 49% FG, 83% FT, 9.4 RPG, 10.7 APG.
The above information shows that LeBron, Kobe and D-Wade certainly compare favorably to their predecessors. Also, Oscar Robertson was an extremely productive player, nearly averaging a triple-double for 7 seasons. Particularly striking to me was how active a defensive player Michael Jordan was, averaging 2.75 spg and a little over 1 block as well. That is extremely impressive for a 6'6" guard. Unfortunately, defensive statistics and turnovers were not statistics taht were recorded in their era.
In order to truly compare the players, however, it is necessary to take their stats and extrapolate them into 48 minute production, since some players averaged substantially more minutes than others (i.e. Robertson's 44.5 and Magic's ~37 minutes per game). Those results show the following:
*Leaders for each category in bold italics
Wade (per 48 minutes): 32.4 PPG 6.3 RPG 8.4 APG 2.3 SPG, 1.3 BPG, and 4.7 T/O.
LeBron: 33.1 PPG 8.3 RPG 8.3 APG 2.0 SPG 1.1 BPG 3.9 T/O.
Kobe: 31.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 6.31 APG, 1.9 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 3.9 T/O
Bird: 30.2 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 7.5 APG, 2.3 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 4.0 T/O
Magic: 24.6 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 14.5 APG, 2.7 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 5.2 T/O
Jordan: 39.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 7.4 APG, 3.4 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 3.8 T/O
Robertson: 32.8 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 11.5 APG
West: 33.6 PPG, 8.19 RPG, 6.6 APG
Again, it is unfortunate that West and Robertson did not have as many statistics available as the more current players. Michael Jordan leads in the most categories (points per game, tied for blocks per game and fewest turnovers per 48 minutes). He is tied with Dwyane Wade for most blocked shots per 48 minutes, which is somewhat surprising considering they are both guards. Again, this data highlights Jordan's activity on the defensive side of the ball.
LeBron James is certainly worthy of the praise he has been receiving, as well. While he does not lead in any one category he is effective in nearly all aspects. These data suggest though that while James is a deft passer, his game may be more similar to Bird than Magic. He and Bird are similar in points (33.1 - 30.2) and assists (8.3 - 7.5) while Bird holds a rather significant advantage in rebounds. This data also may support the idea that Bird may actually be underrated as a player. Magic has a substantial lead in assists to anyone else on the list, but he was less of a scorer than everyone else by a wide margin. It was also surprising to see such a large guard (6'8") have such success stealing the ball from opposing point guards who were presumably much shorter.
Again, Oscar Robertson was a productive monster as the only player to average a triple double in every category. It is hard to tell how comparable his numbers, and those of West, are to players of today, however, as their era (1960s) is significantly different than those of the more current players. Nevertheless, both he and West stack up quite favorably to the others on the list.
Personally, I feel that to disregard their numbers due to the supposed lack of athleticism of their oponents is unfortunate. The players today may be bigger, faster, stronger but are they better? The most athletic basketball player (or team) is certainly not always the best. While many of today's players are great at making SportsCenter's Top 10, they enter the league as 19 year olds who are very raw. It discredits the talents of players from the past and also insults the fundamentals of the players today to assume today's players are inherently more athletic and therefore better.
Not surprisingly to many is the finding that Kobe had the fewest assists. However, I was somewhat surprised by his averages as they are higher than many would expect from a player commonly labeled as selfish and a ball hog. His statistics compare to Jordan's less favorably than Wade's, but Kobe's resilience in the clutch has been his true hallmark. Wade may be another player that gets overlooked at times due to his woeful supporting cast in Miami, but it is impossible to argue his effectiveness on the court. Unfortunately for him he does turn the ball over at a high rate.
The next point of interest is how much these players mattered to their teams. Basketball-reference.com uses a few stats to show a player's contribution to his team's offense, defense, wins and wins per 48 minutes. Another stat of interest is the PER or Player Efficiency Rating, which is a measure of per minute production, which is standardized so the league average is 15.
- OWS represents Offensive Win Shares : an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player due to his offense
- DWS represents Defensive Win Shares : an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player due to his defense.
- WS represents Win Shares: an estimate of the wins contributed by a player
- WS/48 represents Win Shares per 48 minutes: an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is ~0.100).
Presented in this discussion is information on each player's regular season and postseason contributions to his team, averaged over their first 7 seasons.
Results:
Dwyane Wade - PER: 25.3 OWS: 6.5 DWS: 5.6 WS: 9.97 WS/48: 0.18
Kobe Bryant - PER: 23.1 OWS: 7.7 DWS: 2.9 WS: 10.5 WS/48: 0.18
LeBron James - PER: 26.9 OWS: 9.9 DWS: 4.8 WS: 14.77 WS/48: 0.23
Larry Bird - PER: 23.3 OWS: 7.6 DWS: 5.7 WS: 13.4 WS/48: 0.21
Magic Johnson - PER: 23.1 OWS: 7.4 DWS: 3.6 WS: 11.0 WS/48: .21
Michael Jordan - PER: 29.8 OWS: 13.4 DWS: 5.0 WS: 18.4 WS/48: 0.28
Jerry West - PER: 22.4 OWS: 9.9 DWS: 2.6 WS: 12.4 WS/48: 0.21
Oscar Robertson - PER:25.9 OWS: 14.2 DWS: 2.6 WS: 16.8 WS/48: 0.23
Michael Jordan clearly dominates these statistics when comparing the first 7 years of these stars' careers. He posted the highest PER, WS and WS/48. Unfortunately, it is difficult to determine the true PER for Robertson and West due to the lack of defensive statistics. Nevertheless, Robertson had the highest OWS at 14.2. Also somewhat surprising was the defensive impact of Bird, again giving further evidence of his legacy being undervalued. Not surprisingly, is LeBron James having the second highest PER due to his all-around abilities. Dwyane Wade's defensive contributions rank second Bird, which is somewhat surprising as his defensive acumen is often unmentioned.
Lastly, their postseason numbers in the same metrics are reviewed. These will use career averages, not just 7 years, since each player did not make the playoffs in their first 7 seasons in the NBA.
Postseason Comparisons:
Robertson: PER 21.66 OWS: 1 DWS: 0.36 WS: 1.36 WS/48: 0.18
Jordan: PER 28.4 OWS: 2.1 DWS: 0.95 WS: 3.1 WS/48: 0.24
Magic: PER 22.5 OWS: 1.8 DWS: 0.7 WS: 2.5 WS/48: 0.2
Wade: PER 23.3 OWS: 0.97 DWS: 0.7 WS: 1.7 WS/48: 0.15
Kobe: PER 20.6 OWS: 1.3 DWS: 0.5 WS: 1.8 WS/48: 0.13
LeBron: PER 28.6 OWS: 1.9 DWS: 1.0 WS: 2.9 WS/48: 0.26
Bird: PER 20.4 OWS: 1.2 DWS: 0.9 WS: 2.1 WS/48: 0.15
West: PER 20.96 OWS: 1.6 DWS: 0.4 WS: 2.1 WS/48: 0.15
LeBron James performs very well here, as he leads in most categories. He holds a slight advantage over Jordan in the PER, DWS and the WS/48. Jordan leads in WS and OWS. The other players appear to be somewhat grouped together. This is a difficult comparison since this is only a few years versus careers in which some players were at the end of theirs (Jerry West actually had a negative WS/48 in his final season at age 35). Nevertheless, LeBron is the King in the playoffs at this point in his career.
These data, in my opinion, support the notion that Michael Jordan is the greatest of all time no matter how you cut it. Dwyane Wade and Larry Bird deserve more credit and LeBron James is truly a jack of all trades on the court.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Clemson Football 2010
So I'm in a football talking mood, apparently. Since I am a Clemson grad, I have to talk about our prospects for next season. First of all, 2009 ACC Player of the Year and consensus All-American C.J. Spiller will be missed in the coming season. He was one of the greatest players to ever put on the orange and white, but his biggest contribution might have been on special teams. He is not, and probably never will be, a pile mover that grinds out 4-5 yards every carry. He was, however, the most lethal player in the country. He could always slip one tackle and then take it to the endzone on any given play. As a return man, the field position he was able to give the Tigers in 2009 was a largely unmentioned benefit to go along with his 5 return touchdowns (4 on punts). It is impossible for him to be replaced by any one player, but their is enough talent for Clemson to make up his yards with other contributors.
The offensive backfield will be adequately manned with junior Jamie Harper and sophomore Andre Ellington. Both gained valuable experience in 2009 due to the nagging toe injury that limited Spiller's carries in some games. Ellington had 491 yards and 4 touchdowns (7.2 ypc) and Harper added 418 yards and 4 scores as well. Hopefully the two can become a "Thunder and Lightning 2.0" similar to the original James Davis-C.J. Spiller "Thunder and Lightning" duo. Ellington, at only 180 lbs., showed impressive burst through the line this season and runs incredibly tough for a smaller back. Harper, meanwhile at 235 lbs., looked tentative during many of his carries but exploded in the bowl game against Kentucky. He ran with power and surprising speed for a big back. Clemson needs those two to step up their games in a big way in 2010.
Kyle Parker had an outstanding freshman season after beating out local hero Willy Korn. Parker passed for 2,526 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also rushed for 135 yards and one touchdown. Despite being undersized, Parker has a cannon for an arm, which is why he may be playing major league baseball and not football next fall. He is a star for the Clemson baseball team and, barring a good draft position, may opt to go that route after this spring's baseball season. Redshirt freshman Tajh Boyd will get the call if Parker goes to baseball, and many have rumored he might beat out Parker if the two go head-to-head in the fall anyway. Boyd was a landmark recruit that chose the Tigers over Oregon and Ohio State. He has big-time talent and is adept as a runner and passer. However, neither will have much success unless the next group steps up in a big way.
Jacoby Ford (2009 Second Team All-ACC) will be the most missed member of our offense in 2010, in my opinion. He had a great senior season as the only real receiving threat for the Tigers outside of All-ACC tight end Michael Palmer. Ford hauled in 56 receptions for 779 yards and 6 touchdowns. Unfortunately, the second-leading wide receiver for Clemson in 2009 was Xavier Dye with a whopping 14 receptions. Dye did catch 3 touchdowns, but production from that position must increase drastically for the Tigers to make a return trip to the ACC Championship Game. He will be joined by junior Marquan Jones (9 receptions, 137 yards, 1 TD) and senior Terrance Ashe (11-124) as the only receivers with any real game experience. Redshirt freshman Bryce McNeal will be looked upon to contribute immediately after playing on the scout team in 2009. He was a big-time recruit and supposedly has a good rapport with Boyd should the two be an on-field tandem. True freshman Martavis Bryant, also a high profile recruit, may get playing time early in his career. They will receive help from the tight end position which was utilized frequently this past season. Sophomore Dwayne Allen is a promising prospect at tight end who caught 3 touchdowns this past season.
The offensive line returns All-ACC senior left tackle Chris Hairston, junior guard Antoine McClain, sophomore center Dalton Freeman, and junior right tackle Landon Walker. All-ACC guard Thomas Austin departs due to graduation, and junior guard Mason Cloy will have to rehabilitate the broken leg he suffered against Georgia Tech in the conference championship game. The potential starting five of Hairston, McClain, Freeman, Cloy and Walker is a solid group that has a wealth of experience. Depth here is a concern, however. Cloy was the second team center and guard, behind Austin, last season but received extensive playing time. David Smith should provide quality depth at either tackle or guard, but outside of that there are more questions than answers. This could be a strong unit for the Tigers in 2010 provided they are not battling injuries.
Similarly, the defensive line should be strong unit once again this season. Defensive tackles Jarvis Jenkins and Brandon Thompson return, as does Jamie Cumbie and Miguel Chavis, giving the team a solid four-man rotation at defensive tackle. Ricky Sapp, who had an all-conference senior season, is lost but will be replaced by junior Andre Branch and/or sophomore Malliciah Goodman. Junior defensive end Da'Quan Bowers needs to have a big season this year. He had a steady sophomore season with 58 tackles, 11 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. However, expectations are exceedingly high for Bowers, who was the top-rated prospect in the nation as a high school senior, and he needs to up those numbers in '10.
Linebacker is the area of most concern, and anyone watching the Georgia Tech games could see why. Middle linebacker Brandon Maye, the team's third leading tackler in '09, is a passionate player who had 103 tackles last season, but must improve in his junior year for the defense to take the next step. He is the lone returning starter as both Kavell Connor and Kevin Alexander were seniors in '09. Corico Hawkins, a sophomore, received a fair amount of playing time as a freshman and was a highly regarded recruit. He may move to the outside or challenge Maye for playing time. Senior Scotty Cooper has plenty of experience as a starter and non-starter, and should enter the spring as a starter at one of the outside linebacker spots. Tarik Rollins, Tig Willard, Spencer Shuey, Quandon Christian, and Daniel Andrews will compete for the outside linebacker spots. Whoever eventually rises to man these spots needs to come a long way in a short period of time. Linebacker play was the weak point of the defense last season and could be an even weaker spot in 2010. That must significantly improve before this team can expect to be playing in a BCS game.
The Tiger secondary, on the other hand, should be one of the best in the ACC, and possibly the nation. All-American safety DeAndre McDaniel returns after a huge junior season. McDaniel picked off 8 passes to go along with 102 tackles. The other safety spot will probably be Freshman All-American Rashard Hall, who himself had 6 interceptions in '09. Seniors Byron Maxwell and Marcus Gilchrist will likely be the starting cornerbacks with junior Coty Sensabaugh and sophomore Xavier Brewer waiting in the wings.
Richard Jackson, a senior, will return to handle field goals and extra points while junior Dawson Zimmerman will be the punter. Spencer Benton is the kickoff specialist.
As mentioned in a previous posting, the schedule will be tougher next season. Road trips to Chapel Hill, Auburn, Tallahassee, Chestnut Hill and Winston-Salem all present a challenge. The home schedule is also tough with Georgia Tech, Miami and South Carolina coming to Clemson.
I think the Tigers beat Maryland, NC State, Presbyterian, and North Texas easily at home. South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Miami present much more trouble. As it stands right now, I don't see the Tigers beating Georgia Tech next season. If Jonathan Dwyer and Derrick Morgan declare for the NFL Draft, as expected, then that changes things. However, as of now, I see the Yellow Jackets continuing their winning streak against Clemson. Miami is a mercurial team that is tough to predict. They have a ton of talent and will not forget their overtime loss to the Tigers in '09. I hate to say it, but I think the Hurricanes escape Death Valley as well. However, I see the Tigers avenging the whipping they received at the hands of the Gamecocks last season. South Carolina could be a very dangerous team but the two teams were clearly not on the same wavelength when they met last November. I would expect the Tiger defense to slow down a potentially explosive passing game and protect their house.
I do see the Tigers winning at Wake Forest. Riley Skinner graduates and leaves a large hole at quarterback for the Demon Deacons and it appears that head coach Jim Grobe has some rebuilding to do. Boston College is another road game the Tigers should claim, although the Eagles have been a pesky opponent over the years and that game is always a tough contest. I do not see a win at Auburn, however. Jordan-Hare is a difficult environment to win in and Auburn displayed a very potent offense this past season. However, they must replace their leading rusher and quarterback. I also do not see the Tigers winning in Chapel Hill. The Tarheels had a quiet season in '09 but finished 9-4. They return almost everyone next season and should compete for the conference title. I have no idea what to expect out of Florida State with Jimbo Fisher at the helm. I do think there will be alot of excitement and a newfound energy for the Seminoles, but I think it will take time before they are back among the conference elite.
Overall I think Clemson will have a status quo season for the Tigers. Poor receiver play will most likely bring down Parker's numbers should he return to play quarterback. The offensive line will be a solid but not spectacular unit. Harper and Ellington will be effective, however, and the running game should be formidable. I would expect Ellington to rush for 800-900 yards and Harper to add another 600-800. I do not forsee either back making the big plays Spiller provided last season, however. Nor do I expect our special teams to be as, well special, without Spiller and Ford returning kicks and forcing teams to alter their gameplan.
The defense should be the reason the Tigers are in every game. Kevin Steele's unit has room for improvement but was very solid in his first season as defensive coordinator. The success of this unit comes down to the linebackers, but the secondary and defensive line will be the envy of everyone in the ACC. I think Dabo Swinney's second season will result in a 7-5 season with road losses to Auburn, Florida State, and North Carolina. I also predict home losses to Georgia Tech and Miami. There are several caveats to this, however.
1.) Receiver play. If Bryce McNeal becomes a big-time player early in his career, or Xavier Dye or Marquan Jones play with the potential they flashed as sought after recruits then this group could be a much needed surprise.
2.) Linebackers. Brandon Maye is a steady performer, and if he can be joined by a playmaker (or become one himself) in the tradition of Leroy Hill, Anthony Simmons, Keith Adams, John Leake, Chad Carson, etc. then this will lead to more wins in 2010.
3.) The continued development of offensive coordinator Billy Napier. The offense was brutal early in the season in 2009, but began to develop as the season went on. The Maryland and South Carolina games were particularly painful. If he can improve in his second season our team will be much better.
4.) Georgia Tech's underclassmen defections. If Dwyer and Morgan go pro, then I will not be so sure the Jackets win in Clemson. These match-ups are always close and could go either way, but the Tigers have been on the short end alot lately. If Jonathan Dwyer is running up the gut on Sundays next fall their offense will take a step back. The same can be said of Derrick Morgan, who single-handidly disrupted Clemson in the entire first half of last season's game in Atlanta.
The offensive backfield will be adequately manned with junior Jamie Harper and sophomore Andre Ellington. Both gained valuable experience in 2009 due to the nagging toe injury that limited Spiller's carries in some games. Ellington had 491 yards and 4 touchdowns (7.2 ypc) and Harper added 418 yards and 4 scores as well. Hopefully the two can become a "Thunder and Lightning 2.0" similar to the original James Davis-C.J. Spiller "Thunder and Lightning" duo. Ellington, at only 180 lbs., showed impressive burst through the line this season and runs incredibly tough for a smaller back. Harper, meanwhile at 235 lbs., looked tentative during many of his carries but exploded in the bowl game against Kentucky. He ran with power and surprising speed for a big back. Clemson needs those two to step up their games in a big way in 2010.
Kyle Parker had an outstanding freshman season after beating out local hero Willy Korn. Parker passed for 2,526 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also rushed for 135 yards and one touchdown. Despite being undersized, Parker has a cannon for an arm, which is why he may be playing major league baseball and not football next fall. He is a star for the Clemson baseball team and, barring a good draft position, may opt to go that route after this spring's baseball season. Redshirt freshman Tajh Boyd will get the call if Parker goes to baseball, and many have rumored he might beat out Parker if the two go head-to-head in the fall anyway. Boyd was a landmark recruit that chose the Tigers over Oregon and Ohio State. He has big-time talent and is adept as a runner and passer. However, neither will have much success unless the next group steps up in a big way.
Jacoby Ford (2009 Second Team All-ACC) will be the most missed member of our offense in 2010, in my opinion. He had a great senior season as the only real receiving threat for the Tigers outside of All-ACC tight end Michael Palmer. Ford hauled in 56 receptions for 779 yards and 6 touchdowns. Unfortunately, the second-leading wide receiver for Clemson in 2009 was Xavier Dye with a whopping 14 receptions. Dye did catch 3 touchdowns, but production from that position must increase drastically for the Tigers to make a return trip to the ACC Championship Game. He will be joined by junior Marquan Jones (9 receptions, 137 yards, 1 TD) and senior Terrance Ashe (11-124) as the only receivers with any real game experience. Redshirt freshman Bryce McNeal will be looked upon to contribute immediately after playing on the scout team in 2009. He was a big-time recruit and supposedly has a good rapport with Boyd should the two be an on-field tandem. True freshman Martavis Bryant, also a high profile recruit, may get playing time early in his career. They will receive help from the tight end position which was utilized frequently this past season. Sophomore Dwayne Allen is a promising prospect at tight end who caught 3 touchdowns this past season.
The offensive line returns All-ACC senior left tackle Chris Hairston, junior guard Antoine McClain, sophomore center Dalton Freeman, and junior right tackle Landon Walker. All-ACC guard Thomas Austin departs due to graduation, and junior guard Mason Cloy will have to rehabilitate the broken leg he suffered against Georgia Tech in the conference championship game. The potential starting five of Hairston, McClain, Freeman, Cloy and Walker is a solid group that has a wealth of experience. Depth here is a concern, however. Cloy was the second team center and guard, behind Austin, last season but received extensive playing time. David Smith should provide quality depth at either tackle or guard, but outside of that there are more questions than answers. This could be a strong unit for the Tigers in 2010 provided they are not battling injuries.
Similarly, the defensive line should be strong unit once again this season. Defensive tackles Jarvis Jenkins and Brandon Thompson return, as does Jamie Cumbie and Miguel Chavis, giving the team a solid four-man rotation at defensive tackle. Ricky Sapp, who had an all-conference senior season, is lost but will be replaced by junior Andre Branch and/or sophomore Malliciah Goodman. Junior defensive end Da'Quan Bowers needs to have a big season this year. He had a steady sophomore season with 58 tackles, 11 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. However, expectations are exceedingly high for Bowers, who was the top-rated prospect in the nation as a high school senior, and he needs to up those numbers in '10.
Linebacker is the area of most concern, and anyone watching the Georgia Tech games could see why. Middle linebacker Brandon Maye, the team's third leading tackler in '09, is a passionate player who had 103 tackles last season, but must improve in his junior year for the defense to take the next step. He is the lone returning starter as both Kavell Connor and Kevin Alexander were seniors in '09. Corico Hawkins, a sophomore, received a fair amount of playing time as a freshman and was a highly regarded recruit. He may move to the outside or challenge Maye for playing time. Senior Scotty Cooper has plenty of experience as a starter and non-starter, and should enter the spring as a starter at one of the outside linebacker spots. Tarik Rollins, Tig Willard, Spencer Shuey, Quandon Christian, and Daniel Andrews will compete for the outside linebacker spots. Whoever eventually rises to man these spots needs to come a long way in a short period of time. Linebacker play was the weak point of the defense last season and could be an even weaker spot in 2010. That must significantly improve before this team can expect to be playing in a BCS game.
The Tiger secondary, on the other hand, should be one of the best in the ACC, and possibly the nation. All-American safety DeAndre McDaniel returns after a huge junior season. McDaniel picked off 8 passes to go along with 102 tackles. The other safety spot will probably be Freshman All-American Rashard Hall, who himself had 6 interceptions in '09. Seniors Byron Maxwell and Marcus Gilchrist will likely be the starting cornerbacks with junior Coty Sensabaugh and sophomore Xavier Brewer waiting in the wings.
Richard Jackson, a senior, will return to handle field goals and extra points while junior Dawson Zimmerman will be the punter. Spencer Benton is the kickoff specialist.
As mentioned in a previous posting, the schedule will be tougher next season. Road trips to Chapel Hill, Auburn, Tallahassee, Chestnut Hill and Winston-Salem all present a challenge. The home schedule is also tough with Georgia Tech, Miami and South Carolina coming to Clemson.
I think the Tigers beat Maryland, NC State, Presbyterian, and North Texas easily at home. South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Miami present much more trouble. As it stands right now, I don't see the Tigers beating Georgia Tech next season. If Jonathan Dwyer and Derrick Morgan declare for the NFL Draft, as expected, then that changes things. However, as of now, I see the Yellow Jackets continuing their winning streak against Clemson. Miami is a mercurial team that is tough to predict. They have a ton of talent and will not forget their overtime loss to the Tigers in '09. I hate to say it, but I think the Hurricanes escape Death Valley as well. However, I see the Tigers avenging the whipping they received at the hands of the Gamecocks last season. South Carolina could be a very dangerous team but the two teams were clearly not on the same wavelength when they met last November. I would expect the Tiger defense to slow down a potentially explosive passing game and protect their house.
I do see the Tigers winning at Wake Forest. Riley Skinner graduates and leaves a large hole at quarterback for the Demon Deacons and it appears that head coach Jim Grobe has some rebuilding to do. Boston College is another road game the Tigers should claim, although the Eagles have been a pesky opponent over the years and that game is always a tough contest. I do not see a win at Auburn, however. Jordan-Hare is a difficult environment to win in and Auburn displayed a very potent offense this past season. However, they must replace their leading rusher and quarterback. I also do not see the Tigers winning in Chapel Hill. The Tarheels had a quiet season in '09 but finished 9-4. They return almost everyone next season and should compete for the conference title. I have no idea what to expect out of Florida State with Jimbo Fisher at the helm. I do think there will be alot of excitement and a newfound energy for the Seminoles, but I think it will take time before they are back among the conference elite.
Overall I think Clemson will have a status quo season for the Tigers. Poor receiver play will most likely bring down Parker's numbers should he return to play quarterback. The offensive line will be a solid but not spectacular unit. Harper and Ellington will be effective, however, and the running game should be formidable. I would expect Ellington to rush for 800-900 yards and Harper to add another 600-800. I do not forsee either back making the big plays Spiller provided last season, however. Nor do I expect our special teams to be as, well special, without Spiller and Ford returning kicks and forcing teams to alter their gameplan.
The defense should be the reason the Tigers are in every game. Kevin Steele's unit has room for improvement but was very solid in his first season as defensive coordinator. The success of this unit comes down to the linebackers, but the secondary and defensive line will be the envy of everyone in the ACC. I think Dabo Swinney's second season will result in a 7-5 season with road losses to Auburn, Florida State, and North Carolina. I also predict home losses to Georgia Tech and Miami. There are several caveats to this, however.
1.) Receiver play. If Bryce McNeal becomes a big-time player early in his career, or Xavier Dye or Marquan Jones play with the potential they flashed as sought after recruits then this group could be a much needed surprise.
2.) Linebackers. Brandon Maye is a steady performer, and if he can be joined by a playmaker (or become one himself) in the tradition of Leroy Hill, Anthony Simmons, Keith Adams, John Leake, Chad Carson, etc. then this will lead to more wins in 2010.
3.) The continued development of offensive coordinator Billy Napier. The offense was brutal early in the season in 2009, but began to develop as the season went on. The Maryland and South Carolina games were particularly painful. If he can improve in his second season our team will be much better.
4.) Georgia Tech's underclassmen defections. If Dwyer and Morgan go pro, then I will not be so sure the Jackets win in Clemson. These match-ups are always close and could go either way, but the Tigers have been on the short end alot lately. If Jonathan Dwyer is running up the gut on Sundays next fall their offense will take a step back. The same can be said of Derrick Morgan, who single-handidly disrupted Clemson in the entire first half of last season's game in Atlanta.
Early Look: 2010 College Football Season
I know, I know....the BCS Championship game was LAST NIGHT and I'm already putting together my top storylines for next season. Too early? Perhaps. Nevertheless, it is never too early to look ahead to next year. So, without further ado, here are some of my observations and even a few predictions for 2010:
- If Boise State wants to be mentioned among the elite programs, 2010 is their chance. The Broncos return every starter but one from 2009's undefeated team that shut down TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. Quarterback Kellen Moore deserves preseason Heisman consideration and the offense should be among the best in college football. The only thing standing in their way for a shot at the national championship are games against Oregon State and Virginia Tech, another team with national titel aspirations.
- Don't sleep on TCU, either. Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs lose several playmakers on defense, but they did last year too and just kept reloading. Quarterback Andy Dalton returns after a stellar 2009. Look for the Horned Frogs to capture the Mountain West crown again in 2010.
- Watch out for the Ohio State Buckeyes. Jim Tressel's team completely shutdown the vaunted offense of the Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl and quarterback Terrelle Pryor flashed the promise that made him the nation's top-rated recruit in 2008. The entire offense and most of the defense returns next season, as well. The schedule features a visit from Miami(Fl.), Penn State and road trips to Wisconsin and Iowa. Much to the chagrin of many college football fans, the Buckeyes could be playing for the BCS Championship again next season.
- What to make of the Florida Gators? With head coach Urban Meyer's change of heart to take a leave of absence (after originally resigning),Tim Tebow's graduation, and defensive coordinator Charlie Strong leaving to become the head coach at Louisville, what will happen to this team? I see a step back, but not a collapse. Tebow will be replaced by another high school All-American, most likely John Brantley, who will be throwing passes to other former prep stars. I see this team still winning the SEC East, but not competing for the national title with road trips to Baton Rouge, Knoxville, and Tuscaloosa on the horizon.
- 2010 will end the SEC's string of national champions. Florida will still be arguably the most talented team in the country but must go through some growing pains in the transition. Alabama should be the class of the SEC once again, but after an intriguing non-conference game in Tuscaloosa against Penn State, the Tide must travel to Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolin and LSU. Its difficult to imagine the 2010 Crimson Tide navigating all of that unscathed after all of their personnel losses from the previous year's outstanding defense.
Lost in all of the "SEC superiority" is the fact that it has basically become a two-team league. In both 2008 and 2009 it was Alabama and Florida and then everyone else below that. This was true in the bowls as well as LSU, Kentucky, Tennessee and South Carolina all lost their bowls, and the league overall was only 6-4 in the postseason.
- Speaking of the SEC, there are 3 sleeper teams to watch out for. Arkansas, South Carolina and Tennessee. While I think Florida will be down I still see them as the best team in the SEC East. The Gamecocks and Volunteers do threaten that, and the Gators must travel to Knoxville. Steve Spurrier's team returns virtually everyone, but will that be enough? Judging from the past all signs point to no, but it's not inconceivable to see the Gamecocks win 9 games in 2010. The same can be said of Lane Kiffin's Vols, but the week before they face the Gators they must take on the Oregon Ducks.
- The Pac-10 Championship goes through Oregon. With Joe McKnight surprisingly turning pro, Pete Carroll potentially leaving to coach in the NFL and Southern Cal's 9-4 record in 2009, all signs point to a downturn for the Trojans (even if it is only brief). The Oregon Ducks are the team to beat in the Pac-10 now with do-everything quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and speedy LaMichael James running the ball. Oregon State also plays into the mix with the twin brother duo of Jacquizz and James Rodgers keeping defensive coordinators up at night.
- The ACC Coastal Division will be one of the toughest in all of college football. While the ACC is unquestionably one of the weakest BCS conferences, the 2010 Coastal Division should be as hard fought as any in the land. Virginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech will all lock horns for the right to play in the ACC Championship Game. Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and possibly Miami should all be preseason top 15 teams as well, so this division will have BCS ramifications. Look for the Hokies to take that division as well as the ACC Conference Championship next season.
- The ACC will have a national championship contender. Whether it is Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech (or possibly Miami) someone from the ACC will emerge as a title contender. My money is on the Hokies who return one of the best backfields in the country with sophomores Ryan Williams and Darren Evans both the owners of 1,200+ yard rushing seasons. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor (2,311 yards, 13 TDs) returns as well. The Hokie defense must fill some holes, but defensive coordinator Bud Foster will have his unit ready to go by the opening game. The match-up against Boise State could set up a run for the title for one of those two teams. Also, if Miami can navigate their brutal out-of-conference schedule ( at Ohio State, at Pittsburgh, USF) they could be in the hunt for a BCS berth.
- The Big XII is wide open. Texas, like Florida, returns a ton of talent but much of it will be inexperienced. Oklahoma, who endured a rough season in 2009, also replaces several key faces but with Landry Jones back at quarterback their offense should be potent. However, it looks like the Nebraska Cornhuskers may be the team to beat in 2010 even without Ndamukong Suh anchoring the defense. Bo Pelini has his Huskers playing tough defense, and after a 10-win season in 2009 bigger things could be on the horizon.
- Clemson: As an alumnus, I have to talk about my Tigers for a bit. This past season probably exceeded most expectations with a long overdue trip to the conference title game. A 9-5 record was a solid debut for Dabo Swinney in his first year as coach, but a loss to woeful Maryland and in-state rival South Carolina clouded what could have been a stellar campaign (11-3 without those two pitiful games). Clemson's schedule gets much more difficult in 2010 with a non-conference trip to Auburn. Also, the conference schedule ramps up in difficulty as well.
Home games: Maryland, NC State, Miami, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Presbyterian, North Texas
Away games: Florida State, North Carolina, Boston College, Wake Forest, Auburn
More on Clemson later...
- Ohio State will win the 2010 National Championship. After watching almost every bowl game I felt the most impressed by what Ohio State has for next season. Boise State may play against them, but their game against Virginia Tech is a real toss-up. I expect Alabama and Florida to slip back to the rest of the pack some and lose just enough games to keep an SEC representative out of the title game. I think parity will keep the SEC, Pac-10, Big East and Big XII champions out of the title game. A one-loss Virginia Tech, Miami or Georgia Tech could land themselves in the title game as well, since all should start the season highly ranked. Ultimately though, Boise State holds their title game chances in their own hands. If they go undefeated next season it will be incredibly difficult to keep them out of the BCS title bout.
- If Boise State wants to be mentioned among the elite programs, 2010 is their chance. The Broncos return every starter but one from 2009's undefeated team that shut down TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. Quarterback Kellen Moore deserves preseason Heisman consideration and the offense should be among the best in college football. The only thing standing in their way for a shot at the national championship are games against Oregon State and Virginia Tech, another team with national titel aspirations.
- Don't sleep on TCU, either. Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs lose several playmakers on defense, but they did last year too and just kept reloading. Quarterback Andy Dalton returns after a stellar 2009. Look for the Horned Frogs to capture the Mountain West crown again in 2010.
- Watch out for the Ohio State Buckeyes. Jim Tressel's team completely shutdown the vaunted offense of the Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl and quarterback Terrelle Pryor flashed the promise that made him the nation's top-rated recruit in 2008. The entire offense and most of the defense returns next season, as well. The schedule features a visit from Miami(Fl.), Penn State and road trips to Wisconsin and Iowa. Much to the chagrin of many college football fans, the Buckeyes could be playing for the BCS Championship again next season.
- What to make of the Florida Gators? With head coach Urban Meyer's change of heart to take a leave of absence (after originally resigning),Tim Tebow's graduation, and defensive coordinator Charlie Strong leaving to become the head coach at Louisville, what will happen to this team? I see a step back, but not a collapse. Tebow will be replaced by another high school All-American, most likely John Brantley, who will be throwing passes to other former prep stars. I see this team still winning the SEC East, but not competing for the national title with road trips to Baton Rouge, Knoxville, and Tuscaloosa on the horizon.
- 2010 will end the SEC's string of national champions. Florida will still be arguably the most talented team in the country but must go through some growing pains in the transition. Alabama should be the class of the SEC once again, but after an intriguing non-conference game in Tuscaloosa against Penn State, the Tide must travel to Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolin and LSU. Its difficult to imagine the 2010 Crimson Tide navigating all of that unscathed after all of their personnel losses from the previous year's outstanding defense.
Lost in all of the "SEC superiority" is the fact that it has basically become a two-team league. In both 2008 and 2009 it was Alabama and Florida and then everyone else below that. This was true in the bowls as well as LSU, Kentucky, Tennessee and South Carolina all lost their bowls, and the league overall was only 6-4 in the postseason.
- Speaking of the SEC, there are 3 sleeper teams to watch out for. Arkansas, South Carolina and Tennessee. While I think Florida will be down I still see them as the best team in the SEC East. The Gamecocks and Volunteers do threaten that, and the Gators must travel to Knoxville. Steve Spurrier's team returns virtually everyone, but will that be enough? Judging from the past all signs point to no, but it's not inconceivable to see the Gamecocks win 9 games in 2010. The same can be said of Lane Kiffin's Vols, but the week before they face the Gators they must take on the Oregon Ducks.
- The Pac-10 Championship goes through Oregon. With Joe McKnight surprisingly turning pro, Pete Carroll potentially leaving to coach in the NFL and Southern Cal's 9-4 record in 2009, all signs point to a downturn for the Trojans (even if it is only brief). The Oregon Ducks are the team to beat in the Pac-10 now with do-everything quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and speedy LaMichael James running the ball. Oregon State also plays into the mix with the twin brother duo of Jacquizz and James Rodgers keeping defensive coordinators up at night.
- The ACC Coastal Division will be one of the toughest in all of college football. While the ACC is unquestionably one of the weakest BCS conferences, the 2010 Coastal Division should be as hard fought as any in the land. Virginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech will all lock horns for the right to play in the ACC Championship Game. Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and possibly Miami should all be preseason top 15 teams as well, so this division will have BCS ramifications. Look for the Hokies to take that division as well as the ACC Conference Championship next season.
- The ACC will have a national championship contender. Whether it is Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech (or possibly Miami) someone from the ACC will emerge as a title contender. My money is on the Hokies who return one of the best backfields in the country with sophomores Ryan Williams and Darren Evans both the owners of 1,200+ yard rushing seasons. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor (2,311 yards, 13 TDs) returns as well. The Hokie defense must fill some holes, but defensive coordinator Bud Foster will have his unit ready to go by the opening game. The match-up against Boise State could set up a run for the title for one of those two teams. Also, if Miami can navigate their brutal out-of-conference schedule ( at Ohio State, at Pittsburgh, USF) they could be in the hunt for a BCS berth.
- The Big XII is wide open. Texas, like Florida, returns a ton of talent but much of it will be inexperienced. Oklahoma, who endured a rough season in 2009, also replaces several key faces but with Landry Jones back at quarterback their offense should be potent. However, it looks like the Nebraska Cornhuskers may be the team to beat in 2010 even without Ndamukong Suh anchoring the defense. Bo Pelini has his Huskers playing tough defense, and after a 10-win season in 2009 bigger things could be on the horizon.
- Clemson: As an alumnus, I have to talk about my Tigers for a bit. This past season probably exceeded most expectations with a long overdue trip to the conference title game. A 9-5 record was a solid debut for Dabo Swinney in his first year as coach, but a loss to woeful Maryland and in-state rival South Carolina clouded what could have been a stellar campaign (11-3 without those two pitiful games). Clemson's schedule gets much more difficult in 2010 with a non-conference trip to Auburn. Also, the conference schedule ramps up in difficulty as well.
Home games: Maryland, NC State, Miami, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Presbyterian, North Texas
Away games: Florida State, North Carolina, Boston College, Wake Forest, Auburn
More on Clemson later...
- Ohio State will win the 2010 National Championship. After watching almost every bowl game I felt the most impressed by what Ohio State has for next season. Boise State may play against them, but their game against Virginia Tech is a real toss-up. I expect Alabama and Florida to slip back to the rest of the pack some and lose just enough games to keep an SEC representative out of the title game. I think parity will keep the SEC, Pac-10, Big East and Big XII champions out of the title game. A one-loss Virginia Tech, Miami or Georgia Tech could land themselves in the title game as well, since all should start the season highly ranked. Ultimately though, Boise State holds their title game chances in their own hands. If they go undefeated next season it will be incredibly difficult to keep them out of the BCS title bout.
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