So I'm in a football talking mood, apparently. Since I am a Clemson grad, I have to talk about our prospects for next season. First of all, 2009 ACC Player of the Year and consensus All-American C.J. Spiller will be missed in the coming season. He was one of the greatest players to ever put on the orange and white, but his biggest contribution might have been on special teams. He is not, and probably never will be, a pile mover that grinds out 4-5 yards every carry. He was, however, the most lethal player in the country. He could always slip one tackle and then take it to the endzone on any given play. As a return man, the field position he was able to give the Tigers in 2009 was a largely unmentioned benefit to go along with his 5 return touchdowns (4 on punts). It is impossible for him to be replaced by any one player, but their is enough talent for Clemson to make up his yards with other contributors.
The offensive backfield will be adequately manned with junior Jamie Harper and sophomore Andre Ellington. Both gained valuable experience in 2009 due to the nagging toe injury that limited Spiller's carries in some games. Ellington had 491 yards and 4 touchdowns (7.2 ypc) and Harper added 418 yards and 4 scores as well. Hopefully the two can become a "Thunder and Lightning 2.0" similar to the original James Davis-C.J. Spiller "Thunder and Lightning" duo. Ellington, at only 180 lbs., showed impressive burst through the line this season and runs incredibly tough for a smaller back. Harper, meanwhile at 235 lbs., looked tentative during many of his carries but exploded in the bowl game against Kentucky. He ran with power and surprising speed for a big back. Clemson needs those two to step up their games in a big way in 2010.
Kyle Parker had an outstanding freshman season after beating out local hero Willy Korn. Parker passed for 2,526 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He also rushed for 135 yards and one touchdown. Despite being undersized, Parker has a cannon for an arm, which is why he may be playing major league baseball and not football next fall. He is a star for the Clemson baseball team and, barring a good draft position, may opt to go that route after this spring's baseball season. Redshirt freshman Tajh Boyd will get the call if Parker goes to baseball, and many have rumored he might beat out Parker if the two go head-to-head in the fall anyway. Boyd was a landmark recruit that chose the Tigers over Oregon and Ohio State. He has big-time talent and is adept as a runner and passer. However, neither will have much success unless the next group steps up in a big way.
Jacoby Ford (2009 Second Team All-ACC) will be the most missed member of our offense in 2010, in my opinion. He had a great senior season as the only real receiving threat for the Tigers outside of All-ACC tight end Michael Palmer. Ford hauled in 56 receptions for 779 yards and 6 touchdowns. Unfortunately, the second-leading wide receiver for Clemson in 2009 was Xavier Dye with a whopping 14 receptions. Dye did catch 3 touchdowns, but production from that position must increase drastically for the Tigers to make a return trip to the ACC Championship Game. He will be joined by junior Marquan Jones (9 receptions, 137 yards, 1 TD) and senior Terrance Ashe (11-124) as the only receivers with any real game experience. Redshirt freshman Bryce McNeal will be looked upon to contribute immediately after playing on the scout team in 2009. He was a big-time recruit and supposedly has a good rapport with Boyd should the two be an on-field tandem. True freshman Martavis Bryant, also a high profile recruit, may get playing time early in his career. They will receive help from the tight end position which was utilized frequently this past season. Sophomore Dwayne Allen is a promising prospect at tight end who caught 3 touchdowns this past season.
The offensive line returns All-ACC senior left tackle Chris Hairston, junior guard Antoine McClain, sophomore center Dalton Freeman, and junior right tackle Landon Walker. All-ACC guard Thomas Austin departs due to graduation, and junior guard Mason Cloy will have to rehabilitate the broken leg he suffered against Georgia Tech in the conference championship game. The potential starting five of Hairston, McClain, Freeman, Cloy and Walker is a solid group that has a wealth of experience. Depth here is a concern, however. Cloy was the second team center and guard, behind Austin, last season but received extensive playing time. David Smith should provide quality depth at either tackle or guard, but outside of that there are more questions than answers. This could be a strong unit for the Tigers in 2010 provided they are not battling injuries.
Similarly, the defensive line should be strong unit once again this season. Defensive tackles Jarvis Jenkins and Brandon Thompson return, as does Jamie Cumbie and Miguel Chavis, giving the team a solid four-man rotation at defensive tackle. Ricky Sapp, who had an all-conference senior season, is lost but will be replaced by junior Andre Branch and/or sophomore Malliciah Goodman. Junior defensive end Da'Quan Bowers needs to have a big season this year. He had a steady sophomore season with 58 tackles, 11 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. However, expectations are exceedingly high for Bowers, who was the top-rated prospect in the nation as a high school senior, and he needs to up those numbers in '10.
Linebacker is the area of most concern, and anyone watching the Georgia Tech games could see why. Middle linebacker Brandon Maye, the team's third leading tackler in '09, is a passionate player who had 103 tackles last season, but must improve in his junior year for the defense to take the next step. He is the lone returning starter as both Kavell Connor and Kevin Alexander were seniors in '09. Corico Hawkins, a sophomore, received a fair amount of playing time as a freshman and was a highly regarded recruit. He may move to the outside or challenge Maye for playing time. Senior Scotty Cooper has plenty of experience as a starter and non-starter, and should enter the spring as a starter at one of the outside linebacker spots. Tarik Rollins, Tig Willard, Spencer Shuey, Quandon Christian, and Daniel Andrews will compete for the outside linebacker spots. Whoever eventually rises to man these spots needs to come a long way in a short period of time. Linebacker play was the weak point of the defense last season and could be an even weaker spot in 2010. That must significantly improve before this team can expect to be playing in a BCS game.
The Tiger secondary, on the other hand, should be one of the best in the ACC, and possibly the nation. All-American safety DeAndre McDaniel returns after a huge junior season. McDaniel picked off 8 passes to go along with 102 tackles. The other safety spot will probably be Freshman All-American Rashard Hall, who himself had 6 interceptions in '09. Seniors Byron Maxwell and Marcus Gilchrist will likely be the starting cornerbacks with junior Coty Sensabaugh and sophomore Xavier Brewer waiting in the wings.
Richard Jackson, a senior, will return to handle field goals and extra points while junior Dawson Zimmerman will be the punter. Spencer Benton is the kickoff specialist.
As mentioned in a previous posting, the schedule will be tougher next season. Road trips to Chapel Hill, Auburn, Tallahassee, Chestnut Hill and Winston-Salem all present a challenge. The home schedule is also tough with Georgia Tech, Miami and South Carolina coming to Clemson.
I think the Tigers beat Maryland, NC State, Presbyterian, and North Texas easily at home. South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Miami present much more trouble. As it stands right now, I don't see the Tigers beating Georgia Tech next season. If Jonathan Dwyer and Derrick Morgan declare for the NFL Draft, as expected, then that changes things. However, as of now, I see the Yellow Jackets continuing their winning streak against Clemson. Miami is a mercurial team that is tough to predict. They have a ton of talent and will not forget their overtime loss to the Tigers in '09. I hate to say it, but I think the Hurricanes escape Death Valley as well. However, I see the Tigers avenging the whipping they received at the hands of the Gamecocks last season. South Carolina could be a very dangerous team but the two teams were clearly not on the same wavelength when they met last November. I would expect the Tiger defense to slow down a potentially explosive passing game and protect their house.
I do see the Tigers winning at Wake Forest. Riley Skinner graduates and leaves a large hole at quarterback for the Demon Deacons and it appears that head coach Jim Grobe has some rebuilding to do. Boston College is another road game the Tigers should claim, although the Eagles have been a pesky opponent over the years and that game is always a tough contest. I do not see a win at Auburn, however. Jordan-Hare is a difficult environment to win in and Auburn displayed a very potent offense this past season. However, they must replace their leading rusher and quarterback. I also do not see the Tigers winning in Chapel Hill. The Tarheels had a quiet season in '09 but finished 9-4. They return almost everyone next season and should compete for the conference title. I have no idea what to expect out of Florida State with Jimbo Fisher at the helm. I do think there will be alot of excitement and a newfound energy for the Seminoles, but I think it will take time before they are back among the conference elite.
Overall I think Clemson will have a status quo season for the Tigers. Poor receiver play will most likely bring down Parker's numbers should he return to play quarterback. The offensive line will be a solid but not spectacular unit. Harper and Ellington will be effective, however, and the running game should be formidable. I would expect Ellington to rush for 800-900 yards and Harper to add another 600-800. I do not forsee either back making the big plays Spiller provided last season, however. Nor do I expect our special teams to be as, well special, without Spiller and Ford returning kicks and forcing teams to alter their gameplan.
The defense should be the reason the Tigers are in every game. Kevin Steele's unit has room for improvement but was very solid in his first season as defensive coordinator. The success of this unit comes down to the linebackers, but the secondary and defensive line will be the envy of everyone in the ACC. I think Dabo Swinney's second season will result in a 7-5 season with road losses to Auburn, Florida State, and North Carolina. I also predict home losses to Georgia Tech and Miami. There are several caveats to this, however.
1.) Receiver play. If Bryce McNeal becomes a big-time player early in his career, or Xavier Dye or Marquan Jones play with the potential they flashed as sought after recruits then this group could be a much needed surprise.
2.) Linebackers. Brandon Maye is a steady performer, and if he can be joined by a playmaker (or become one himself) in the tradition of Leroy Hill, Anthony Simmons, Keith Adams, John Leake, Chad Carson, etc. then this will lead to more wins in 2010.
3.) The continued development of offensive coordinator Billy Napier. The offense was brutal early in the season in 2009, but began to develop as the season went on. The Maryland and South Carolina games were particularly painful. If he can improve in his second season our team will be much better.
4.) Georgia Tech's underclassmen defections. If Dwyer and Morgan go pro, then I will not be so sure the Jackets win in Clemson. These match-ups are always close and could go either way, but the Tigers have been on the short end alot lately. If Jonathan Dwyer is running up the gut on Sundays next fall their offense will take a step back. The same can be said of Derrick Morgan, who single-handidly disrupted Clemson in the entire first half of last season's game in Atlanta.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Early Look: 2010 College Football Season
I know, I know....the BCS Championship game was LAST NIGHT and I'm already putting together my top storylines for next season. Too early? Perhaps. Nevertheless, it is never too early to look ahead to next year. So, without further ado, here are some of my observations and even a few predictions for 2010:
- If Boise State wants to be mentioned among the elite programs, 2010 is their chance. The Broncos return every starter but one from 2009's undefeated team that shut down TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. Quarterback Kellen Moore deserves preseason Heisman consideration and the offense should be among the best in college football. The only thing standing in their way for a shot at the national championship are games against Oregon State and Virginia Tech, another team with national titel aspirations.
- Don't sleep on TCU, either. Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs lose several playmakers on defense, but they did last year too and just kept reloading. Quarterback Andy Dalton returns after a stellar 2009. Look for the Horned Frogs to capture the Mountain West crown again in 2010.
- Watch out for the Ohio State Buckeyes. Jim Tressel's team completely shutdown the vaunted offense of the Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl and quarterback Terrelle Pryor flashed the promise that made him the nation's top-rated recruit in 2008. The entire offense and most of the defense returns next season, as well. The schedule features a visit from Miami(Fl.), Penn State and road trips to Wisconsin and Iowa. Much to the chagrin of many college football fans, the Buckeyes could be playing for the BCS Championship again next season.
- What to make of the Florida Gators? With head coach Urban Meyer's change of heart to take a leave of absence (after originally resigning),Tim Tebow's graduation, and defensive coordinator Charlie Strong leaving to become the head coach at Louisville, what will happen to this team? I see a step back, but not a collapse. Tebow will be replaced by another high school All-American, most likely John Brantley, who will be throwing passes to other former prep stars. I see this team still winning the SEC East, but not competing for the national title with road trips to Baton Rouge, Knoxville, and Tuscaloosa on the horizon.
- 2010 will end the SEC's string of national champions. Florida will still be arguably the most talented team in the country but must go through some growing pains in the transition. Alabama should be the class of the SEC once again, but after an intriguing non-conference game in Tuscaloosa against Penn State, the Tide must travel to Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolin and LSU. Its difficult to imagine the 2010 Crimson Tide navigating all of that unscathed after all of their personnel losses from the previous year's outstanding defense.
Lost in all of the "SEC superiority" is the fact that it has basically become a two-team league. In both 2008 and 2009 it was Alabama and Florida and then everyone else below that. This was true in the bowls as well as LSU, Kentucky, Tennessee and South Carolina all lost their bowls, and the league overall was only 6-4 in the postseason.
- Speaking of the SEC, there are 3 sleeper teams to watch out for. Arkansas, South Carolina and Tennessee. While I think Florida will be down I still see them as the best team in the SEC East. The Gamecocks and Volunteers do threaten that, and the Gators must travel to Knoxville. Steve Spurrier's team returns virtually everyone, but will that be enough? Judging from the past all signs point to no, but it's not inconceivable to see the Gamecocks win 9 games in 2010. The same can be said of Lane Kiffin's Vols, but the week before they face the Gators they must take on the Oregon Ducks.
- The Pac-10 Championship goes through Oregon. With Joe McKnight surprisingly turning pro, Pete Carroll potentially leaving to coach in the NFL and Southern Cal's 9-4 record in 2009, all signs point to a downturn for the Trojans (even if it is only brief). The Oregon Ducks are the team to beat in the Pac-10 now with do-everything quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and speedy LaMichael James running the ball. Oregon State also plays into the mix with the twin brother duo of Jacquizz and James Rodgers keeping defensive coordinators up at night.
- The ACC Coastal Division will be one of the toughest in all of college football. While the ACC is unquestionably one of the weakest BCS conferences, the 2010 Coastal Division should be as hard fought as any in the land. Virginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech will all lock horns for the right to play in the ACC Championship Game. Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and possibly Miami should all be preseason top 15 teams as well, so this division will have BCS ramifications. Look for the Hokies to take that division as well as the ACC Conference Championship next season.
- The ACC will have a national championship contender. Whether it is Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech (or possibly Miami) someone from the ACC will emerge as a title contender. My money is on the Hokies who return one of the best backfields in the country with sophomores Ryan Williams and Darren Evans both the owners of 1,200+ yard rushing seasons. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor (2,311 yards, 13 TDs) returns as well. The Hokie defense must fill some holes, but defensive coordinator Bud Foster will have his unit ready to go by the opening game. The match-up against Boise State could set up a run for the title for one of those two teams. Also, if Miami can navigate their brutal out-of-conference schedule ( at Ohio State, at Pittsburgh, USF) they could be in the hunt for a BCS berth.
- The Big XII is wide open. Texas, like Florida, returns a ton of talent but much of it will be inexperienced. Oklahoma, who endured a rough season in 2009, also replaces several key faces but with Landry Jones back at quarterback their offense should be potent. However, it looks like the Nebraska Cornhuskers may be the team to beat in 2010 even without Ndamukong Suh anchoring the defense. Bo Pelini has his Huskers playing tough defense, and after a 10-win season in 2009 bigger things could be on the horizon.
- Clemson: As an alumnus, I have to talk about my Tigers for a bit. This past season probably exceeded most expectations with a long overdue trip to the conference title game. A 9-5 record was a solid debut for Dabo Swinney in his first year as coach, but a loss to woeful Maryland and in-state rival South Carolina clouded what could have been a stellar campaign (11-3 without those two pitiful games). Clemson's schedule gets much more difficult in 2010 with a non-conference trip to Auburn. Also, the conference schedule ramps up in difficulty as well.
Home games: Maryland, NC State, Miami, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Presbyterian, North Texas
Away games: Florida State, North Carolina, Boston College, Wake Forest, Auburn
More on Clemson later...
- Ohio State will win the 2010 National Championship. After watching almost every bowl game I felt the most impressed by what Ohio State has for next season. Boise State may play against them, but their game against Virginia Tech is a real toss-up. I expect Alabama and Florida to slip back to the rest of the pack some and lose just enough games to keep an SEC representative out of the title game. I think parity will keep the SEC, Pac-10, Big East and Big XII champions out of the title game. A one-loss Virginia Tech, Miami or Georgia Tech could land themselves in the title game as well, since all should start the season highly ranked. Ultimately though, Boise State holds their title game chances in their own hands. If they go undefeated next season it will be incredibly difficult to keep them out of the BCS title bout.
- If Boise State wants to be mentioned among the elite programs, 2010 is their chance. The Broncos return every starter but one from 2009's undefeated team that shut down TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. Quarterback Kellen Moore deserves preseason Heisman consideration and the offense should be among the best in college football. The only thing standing in their way for a shot at the national championship are games against Oregon State and Virginia Tech, another team with national titel aspirations.
- Don't sleep on TCU, either. Gary Patterson's Horned Frogs lose several playmakers on defense, but they did last year too and just kept reloading. Quarterback Andy Dalton returns after a stellar 2009. Look for the Horned Frogs to capture the Mountain West crown again in 2010.
- Watch out for the Ohio State Buckeyes. Jim Tressel's team completely shutdown the vaunted offense of the Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl and quarterback Terrelle Pryor flashed the promise that made him the nation's top-rated recruit in 2008. The entire offense and most of the defense returns next season, as well. The schedule features a visit from Miami(Fl.), Penn State and road trips to Wisconsin and Iowa. Much to the chagrin of many college football fans, the Buckeyes could be playing for the BCS Championship again next season.
- What to make of the Florida Gators? With head coach Urban Meyer's change of heart to take a leave of absence (after originally resigning),Tim Tebow's graduation, and defensive coordinator Charlie Strong leaving to become the head coach at Louisville, what will happen to this team? I see a step back, but not a collapse. Tebow will be replaced by another high school All-American, most likely John Brantley, who will be throwing passes to other former prep stars. I see this team still winning the SEC East, but not competing for the national title with road trips to Baton Rouge, Knoxville, and Tuscaloosa on the horizon.
- 2010 will end the SEC's string of national champions. Florida will still be arguably the most talented team in the country but must go through some growing pains in the transition. Alabama should be the class of the SEC once again, but after an intriguing non-conference game in Tuscaloosa against Penn State, the Tide must travel to Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolin and LSU. Its difficult to imagine the 2010 Crimson Tide navigating all of that unscathed after all of their personnel losses from the previous year's outstanding defense.
Lost in all of the "SEC superiority" is the fact that it has basically become a two-team league. In both 2008 and 2009 it was Alabama and Florida and then everyone else below that. This was true in the bowls as well as LSU, Kentucky, Tennessee and South Carolina all lost their bowls, and the league overall was only 6-4 in the postseason.
- Speaking of the SEC, there are 3 sleeper teams to watch out for. Arkansas, South Carolina and Tennessee. While I think Florida will be down I still see them as the best team in the SEC East. The Gamecocks and Volunteers do threaten that, and the Gators must travel to Knoxville. Steve Spurrier's team returns virtually everyone, but will that be enough? Judging from the past all signs point to no, but it's not inconceivable to see the Gamecocks win 9 games in 2010. The same can be said of Lane Kiffin's Vols, but the week before they face the Gators they must take on the Oregon Ducks.
- The Pac-10 Championship goes through Oregon. With Joe McKnight surprisingly turning pro, Pete Carroll potentially leaving to coach in the NFL and Southern Cal's 9-4 record in 2009, all signs point to a downturn for the Trojans (even if it is only brief). The Oregon Ducks are the team to beat in the Pac-10 now with do-everything quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and speedy LaMichael James running the ball. Oregon State also plays into the mix with the twin brother duo of Jacquizz and James Rodgers keeping defensive coordinators up at night.
- The ACC Coastal Division will be one of the toughest in all of college football. While the ACC is unquestionably one of the weakest BCS conferences, the 2010 Coastal Division should be as hard fought as any in the land. Virginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech will all lock horns for the right to play in the ACC Championship Game. Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and possibly Miami should all be preseason top 15 teams as well, so this division will have BCS ramifications. Look for the Hokies to take that division as well as the ACC Conference Championship next season.
- The ACC will have a national championship contender. Whether it is Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech (or possibly Miami) someone from the ACC will emerge as a title contender. My money is on the Hokies who return one of the best backfields in the country with sophomores Ryan Williams and Darren Evans both the owners of 1,200+ yard rushing seasons. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor (2,311 yards, 13 TDs) returns as well. The Hokie defense must fill some holes, but defensive coordinator Bud Foster will have his unit ready to go by the opening game. The match-up against Boise State could set up a run for the title for one of those two teams. Also, if Miami can navigate their brutal out-of-conference schedule ( at Ohio State, at Pittsburgh, USF) they could be in the hunt for a BCS berth.
- The Big XII is wide open. Texas, like Florida, returns a ton of talent but much of it will be inexperienced. Oklahoma, who endured a rough season in 2009, also replaces several key faces but with Landry Jones back at quarterback their offense should be potent. However, it looks like the Nebraska Cornhuskers may be the team to beat in 2010 even without Ndamukong Suh anchoring the defense. Bo Pelini has his Huskers playing tough defense, and after a 10-win season in 2009 bigger things could be on the horizon.
- Clemson: As an alumnus, I have to talk about my Tigers for a bit. This past season probably exceeded most expectations with a long overdue trip to the conference title game. A 9-5 record was a solid debut for Dabo Swinney in his first year as coach, but a loss to woeful Maryland and in-state rival South Carolina clouded what could have been a stellar campaign (11-3 without those two pitiful games). Clemson's schedule gets much more difficult in 2010 with a non-conference trip to Auburn. Also, the conference schedule ramps up in difficulty as well.
Home games: Maryland, NC State, Miami, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Presbyterian, North Texas
Away games: Florida State, North Carolina, Boston College, Wake Forest, Auburn
More on Clemson later...
- Ohio State will win the 2010 National Championship. After watching almost every bowl game I felt the most impressed by what Ohio State has for next season. Boise State may play against them, but their game against Virginia Tech is a real toss-up. I expect Alabama and Florida to slip back to the rest of the pack some and lose just enough games to keep an SEC representative out of the title game. I think parity will keep the SEC, Pac-10, Big East and Big XII champions out of the title game. A one-loss Virginia Tech, Miami or Georgia Tech could land themselves in the title game as well, since all should start the season highly ranked. Ultimately though, Boise State holds their title game chances in their own hands. If they go undefeated next season it will be incredibly difficult to keep them out of the BCS title bout.
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